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Item Determinantes de la elección de consumo de música en vivo en Colombia en el año 2016(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2019) Idrobo Sulbaran, Liseth Yulieth; Galindo Sánchez, Víctor Manuel; Andrade Agudelo, Doris LiliaCultural events have allowed society to evolve without losing its roots and acquire new customs, making a combination of them at present, one of the most ancestral ways of transmitting them has been through music, music brings with it sense of belonging, experiences, emotions and social connection. Live music with the passage of time has generated a large market that has not been exploited as it should be. This produces, therefore, the emphasis and the need in general to make the present writing that has as purpose to determine the variables that can condition the decision of an individual with respect to the consumption of live music in Colombia for the year 2016 and of this way to understand where Colombia is going in relation to the economy of culture, emphasizing live music. The suggested purpose will be achieved through a probit econometric model using the cultural consumption survey conducted in Colombia in 2016. In Colombia, the economy of culture is not seen as a high-impact branch for society, however, culture is annexed to the human being and it is vitally important to investigate it; through the study of determinants of live music consumption for 2016, it is found that the Colombian individual who consumes live music tends to be in greater proportion the woman, educated, from the Atlantic coast, and from stratum 1 and 2 who in Colombia is classified as low.Item Pronóstico del precio del café colombiano para enero del 2018(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2019) Micolta Bedoya, Hector Fernando; Romero Bustamante, Leidy Johana; Obregón Morales, JohynerIn this research work on the forecast of the price of coffee, the objective is to forecast the price of Colombian coffee for January 2018 using the monthly data obtained from the international coffee organization (ICO) following the Box-Jenkins methodology for autoregressive models Integrated mobile average (ARIMA) resulting in the best model being an ARIMA of order 2,1,2 confirming that the use of these models following the methodology mentioned above are appropriate for forecasting.Item Pronòstico de la Actividad Edificadora en Colombia para el Ùltimo Semestre de 2019(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2019) Raigosa Diaz, Maria Ximena; Castillo Tabares, RubénIn Colombia, the construction sector is considered a lever of the economy, and given its importance it is a sector present in national development plans. Its growth is promoted through the creation of mortgage financing and subsidy systems for the promotion of economic development from the supply of housing, and as a response to the growth of needs due to population growth. Given the above, this paper proposes to make a forecast of the building activity; housing and civil works in Colombia for the last semester of 2019. Using information from the Economic Indicators Around Construction (IEAC) carried out by the DANE that collects information from 15 investigations, adjusted to international standards, a stationary behavior was observed, reason why which to build the forecast, a self-progressive statistical moving average (ARMA) autoregressive integrated moving average model that explains a variable through its past behaviors is applied. In this case, an adjusted behavior with 95% confidence was found for the months of June to December 2019, concluding that the use of this forecasting method is successful and allows short-term business planning that the use of this forecast method is accurate and allows a short time business planning.Item Incidencia del monocultivo de la caña de azúcar, en los aspectos económicos y socio ambientales del Valle del Cauca, en el período 2007 - 2017(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2019) Álzate Córdoba, Juliana Andrea; Peñaranda Alcalde, Sergio DanielThe monograph, the incidence of monoculture of sugarcane, in the economic and socio-environmental aspects of Valle del Cauca between 2007 – 2017, It is perform of this recognized sector, so it generates for the valle del cauca, Being this crop of big importance within the agro industry, However, it has a tendency to monoculture sugarcane, therefore, this monograph includes a qualitative development of different phases, getting data and bibliographic information which in turn presents a descriptive analysis of the referenced information, Expose, the difficulty of finding data that in one way or another are real and that can provide us knowledge, seeking to have a debate, because in a certain way, the information is restricted, consequently, difficulty a deeper analysis, spite of this, it was possible to obtain some works and investigations of big importance for the development of the presented objectives, contributing facts in the economic and socioenvironmental component, highlighting, in the same way, the different documents, norms, decrees and laws found which are regulated by the state for the sugar sector or in its defect agrarian. Finally, and with the realization of the foregoing, some conclusions and recommendations are generated, which go according to what was done during the document.Item La influencia del nivel de educación sobre la decisión de la participación en la fuerza laboral en la ciudad de Santiago de Cali y su área metropolitana año 2016 tercer trimestre(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2019) Franco Ñungo, Andrés; Hurtado Hinestroza, Royer AlfonsoThe purpose of this document is to determine the impact that education has when it comes to entering the labor market in the city of Santiago de Cali and its metropolitan area in 2016, third quarter, so a participation model is estimated labor. The purpose is achieved using the information from the large integrated household survey (GEIH, 2016), and a logit econometric model was estimated, where the variables taken into account were, years of schooling, head of household, age, age squared, sex. It was found that having an additional year of schooling in the city of Santiago de Cali and its metropolitan area increases the probability of being inserted in the labor market, that is, having an additional degree of education positively influences the participation of the individual in the market of city work.Item Análisis del comportamiento del crédito por libranza entre junio 2013 y junio 2019; caso de estudio credibanca sas.(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2019) Gomez Ordoñez, Jessica Marcela; Obregon Morales, JohynerWith this case study work for the firm Credibanca SAS, a libranza operator, which offers credits to private sector workers, who have negative reports in risk plants, seeks to determine the ideal generating process with the sales of the firm, for the headquarters of the city of Cali, managing to identify the components of the time series, in the placement for the firm, and thus be able to estimate a sales forecast for 06 periods, from July 2019, until December 2019, from the placement of libranza credits in the city of Cali for the company Credibanca SAS. To accomplish the objectives of the work, a database provided by the firm Credibanca SAS was taken, which consists of historical data of the placement or monthly sales from June 2013, until June 2019; qualitative and quantitative descriptive statistics will be analysed in the Rstudio software and the ARIMA forecasting method will be applied, which will be applied in the Eviews 10 software, selecting the best model using the Akaike and Schwars information criterion, with which sales forecast is carried out for the periods July 2019, until December 2019. The results yielded through the help of the eviews software, with the choice of the best ARIMA model, show a higher growth in sales of the 10 month, a result that may be altered by the conjunctural theme that caused credits to be repressed October 2018, which generates a fairly significant spike in historical sales behavior, which is therefore concluded, according to the 11 forecast generated by the Eviews 10 software, and the result and trend presented by the Hodrick-Prescott filter, that the trend of sales for firm Credibanca SAS is growing.Item Factores asociados a la participación laboral juvenil en Cali área metropolitana - año 2018(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2019) Gallego Valencia, Juan David; Polanía Sarria, Julián Andrés; Gamba Rodríguez, Andrés FelipeThis document analyzes some of the factors associated with the labor participation of the young population, between 14 and 28 years of age, in Cali Metropolitan Area, based on the information of the Great Integrated Household Survey - GEIH, in the year 2018. To determine the probability of participation probabilistic models are estimated and take into account the age, sex, head of household, stratum, care or attention of children, years of schooling, attendance at educational institution and other non-labor income as variables that explain The models. The results show that the probability of participation increases with increasing age and years of schooling, if one is male and head of household, and decreases when the stratum increases, one has the responsibility of caring for or caring for children, studies and perceives other non-labor income.Item Pronóstico de ventas; empresa de plaguicidas del Valle del Cauca, segundo semestre del año 2019(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2019) Cruz Bonilla, María Camila; Betancourt Caicedo, Yeslyn Fernanda; Castillo Tabares, RubénIn this paper, time series models were estimated that modeled the behavior of pesticide sales of the company “XYZ” from August 2014 to December 2019. Two types of methodologies (Simple linear regression and Box Jenkins) were analyzed, and a marked trend and seasonality was found; in the case of the ARIMA model, it was necessary to differentiate the series to stabilize it and have greater precision in the forecast generated. Finally, the simple linear regression method is chosen, because in this case it is more adjusted to the amount of observations obtained from the company and shows a behavior like the previous periods.Item Determinantes de la elección femenina de participar en el mercado laboral en Colombia en el año 2018 un estudio para las 13 áreas metropolitanas(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2019) Arce Córdoba, María Fátima; Tovar González, Victoria Eugenia; Morales Johyner ObregónThe study of the participation decision, and even more, the choice of the types of employment in which an individual can perform, can be conclusive in the dynamics of social mobility processes that are generated within a population. This document aims to analyze through empirical verification the determinants of employment for four categories, controlling for three socioeconomic strata: low, medium and high. In the development of the work, the database provided by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) is used, which is the Large Integrated Household Survey (GEIH) prepared in 2018 for the labor market. For this purpose, a multinomial logistic regression model is estimated, in order to obtain the results that explain how women choose their occupations recognizing that, those from lower and less educated strata, choose less paid jobs following the logic of the added worker, while those who belong to a higher social segment, do so under the logic of the encouraged worker, choosing better qualified and paid jobs. The dependent variable is the occupational occupation divided into 4 categories and the independent variables that will be used are: Educational level, marital status, head of household, Age of children (12-17 years), Size of the household and a control variable that It will be stratification.Item Estimación ajustada del comportamiento de la inflación en Colombia entre 1994/95 - 2006/07: una aproximación usando curvas de Engel(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2019) Rodríguez Burbano, Jeison Gerardo; Obregón Morales, JohynerEl presente trabajo estima el sesgo en la inflación medido a través del IPC. La metodología utilizada consistió en hallar curvas de Engel, es decir, se estimó una demanda de la proporción del gasto en alimentos en función del gasto real de los hogares, donde además, se incluyó un grupo de controles asociados a las características sociodemográficas de cada hogar en 23 áreas metropolitanas. Los datos utilizados corresponden a la Encuesta de Ingresos y Gastos de los años 1994/95 y 2006/07, donde se contó con 11260 observaciones. Los resultados arrojan una sobreestimación promedio anual de la inflación de 1.61 puntos porcentuales, congruente con resultados de autores anteriores. De igual forma, se incluyó cálculos de elasticidades de gasto (0,51) y precio (compensada (0,19) y no compensada (0,35)) de la demanda, encontrando que los alimentos son bienes normales-básicos e inelásticos, tal como lo platea la teoría económica.Item Usabilidad De Canales Virtuales De La Sucursal Estación Del Banco General Para El Periodo Junio-Agosto Del Año 2019(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2019) Quiñones Angulo, Edna; Jimenez Duque, YonathanThe following document gathers the results of an investigation carried out for the General Bank Station branch in the city of Santiago de Cali, whose objective is to characterize the usability of virtual banking for the June-August period of 2019 of the Station branch, to from the base of counting transactions made through alternative channels granted by the BG. The analysis method is deductive, and will take as reference the digital transactions of the Station branch in the period 2017 M01 - 2019 M05, and with them the analysis for the forecast of the June-August period of the year 2019 is deduced. The conclusions highlight that the permanent and continuous use of digital channels is highly related to the trust that the clients of their financial services provider place and perceive due to the multiple benefits in terms of costs and speed in the operations carried out through various strategies of usability represented in the behavior of the number of transactions to be carried out in the branch.Item Pronóstico de ventas de 2019 para clínica de oftalmología de la ciudad de cali(2019) Ruiz Morales, Ramiro Ricardo; Obregon Morales, JohynerBusiness decisions are made based on forecasts and the least error or uncertainty associated with them. The purpose of this preliminary project is to make the sales forecast of an Ophthalmology IPS through the use of Forecast Methods denominated in the literature as: deterministic methods (descriptive, exponential smoothing), as well as the most sophisticated models, denominated in the literature as probabilistic such as the ARIMA (Integrated Autoregressive Mobile Media Method) models with historical sales for the period (January 2011 - June 2019), and based on these results, support the Clinic in making management decisions with less uncertainty.Item Medición de la eficiencia de los hospitales públicos de nivel 1 de la región pacífica colombiana en el año 2017(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2019) Pérez Álvarez, Ronald Stiven; Velásquez Valencia, Tania MaryuryThe use of tools to evaluate the efficiency of public hospitals allows to determine which are the ones that perform best and which will have to optimize the use of their supplies. In this regard, this research carried out the measurement of the efficiency of 103 Public Level I Hospitals located in the Pacific Region of Colombia for the year 2017; to do this, a nonparametric technique called Data Envelope Analysis (DEA) was used. The data used for the study were provided by the Hospital Information System (SIHO) provided by the Ministry of Health and Social Protection. The results showed that of the 103 hospitals, 3 had an optimal level of efficiency in the use of their hospital resources, 8 hospitals had high efficiency, 8 hospitals had medium efficiency and 84 hospitals had low efficiency; At the regional level, the 3 best Hospitals are located in the department of Cauca and hospitals with lower levels of efficiency are located in the departments of Chocó and Nariño.Item Variables que contribuyen a la vinculacion laboral en las 13 principales areas metropolitanas de Colombia, para el rango poblacional de 40 - 45 Años en el tercer trimestre del Año 2018(2019) Tascon Duque, Jose Miguel; Fajardo Daza, Daniel; Duran Peralta, JulianBearing in mind that unemployment at around 40, 50 and 60 years of age has been essential in understanding concepts such as the depreciation of human capital or the importance of work experience, the present investigation focused on analyzing the variables that contribute to the labor relationship, being the study zone the 13 main metropolitan areas of Colombia, and choosing the population range from 40 to 45 years, during the period July – September of the year 2018. The Great Integrated Household Survey (GEIH) provided data for 2018, with which a logit model could be envisaged, which, through the statistical – econometric package STATA 12, allowed the corresponding analysis, including the binary choice model, which represents the probability that an individual will link to or not link to the working environment. Initially, it was found that employment opportunities if reduced with the advancing age in Colombia, since, according to the Occupation Rate as of September 2018, the population in the range from 26 to 45 years showed a 12.9% higher rate in the linking of People of Working Age, with respect to the range from 46 to 65 years. In addition, it was possible to identify the variables that increase the likelihood of employment in the range of 40 to 45 years, being Head of Home with 2%, and Civil Status with 1.6%. On the contrary, the variables that diminish this probability were the condition of Man (variable Sex) with 2.4% and the non occupational income with 1.4%.Item Corrupción como factor de riesgo para la internacionalización de pymes del sector textil(2019) Bastidas Mezu, William David; Meza Sinisterra, Roberto; Perea Arrechea, Jeferson; Donado Mercado, AlexandraThe purpose of this is to identify the impacts of corruption in international business as a risk factor for the internationalization of SMEs in the textile sector in Colombia, through research using secondary sources of information collection such as University databases. Santiago de Cali The results are framed in the development of the research in which three issues are derived, which are the behavior of international sales, the greater corruption damages that occur and the effects of the economy submerged in the production of the textile sector in the country to participate in international business, conclude that these affected frameworks affect the activities related to the internationalization of the SMEs involved, evidencing situations such as unfair competition and delayed processes, while tax revenue and the possibilities of increase foreign investment fall due to the perception of high risk in countries where corruption in international business is higher.Item Probabilidad de participar en el mercado laboral según el nivel de educación: un estudio para Medellín y su área metropolitana en el período 2016: 4(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2019) Granada Rojas, MónicaThe following document seeks to quantify the differentiated effects of the educational level of the inhabitants of Medellín and its metropolitan area for the 2016 period: 4 on the decision to participate in the labor market, based on the Great Integrated Household Survey (GEIH). There was a variable that categorizes the individuals in the sample in: no education, basic primary, media, technical and technological, professional and more. In addition to this, some sociodemographic variables were included, such as sex, head of household and age. For the estimation of the model, a logistic regression was used. It was found that the probability of participating in the labor market increases 12.3% due to being a man, 11.48% for being head of household. For the educational level, it was found that the probability increases 10% for individuals with primary education, 13% for individuals with secondary education, 18.84% for individuals with a technical or technological degree, and finally 18.31% for those who obtained a degree of professional or more.Item El desarrollo de la agroindustria del biocombustible y la seguridad alimentaria en Colombia(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2019) Rivas Hurtado, Johnatan Mauricio; Gómez Hurtado, Kelly JohanaThis paper aims to analyze how the development of biofuel agroindustry in Colombia affects the country's food security. Through a descriptive-analytical analysis that aims to show, and make a synthesis, about the relationship between the development of agro-industry and the phenomenon of food security. With a scope of only doing a literary review and collect statistics on biofuel production and food production. As a result, the development of biofuel agroindustry has 5 plants for the production of ethanol and 7 plants for the production of biodiesel. It is understood that for the production of these large extensions of land is needed, altering the use of the soil for the production of food. But despite the rates of malnutrition and malnutrition represent an adverse reality for food security. Which allows us to conclude that food security is located in those regions where the biofuel industry has had its greatest development.Item Factores determinantes de la participación femenina en el autoempleo en Colombia para el año 2016(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2019) Domínguez Castro, Daniela; Flórez García, Helen DayanaThis document analyzes the determinants of female participation in self-employment in Colombia for the year 2016. For this, a database provided from the official page of the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) and the Great Integrated Household Survey (GEIH 2016). Two Logit models are estimated to find results that explain female labor participation in self-employment divided into categories of "self-employed" and "self-employed" women; in order to contemplate which are the variables that influence around the proposed topic. The dependent variable is a dichotomous variable that represents the decision to be self-employed using the occupational categories of employer and self-employed, defined as 1 if it is self-employed and 0 if it is a salaried worker, the explanatory variables are the level of schooling, age, marital status, number of children in the home and if the woman is head of household. As results, homogeneous effects are found with the variables schooling, age and marital status between the models of the "patron" women and the "own account"; finally it is found that the number of minors in the household decreases the probability in 0.203% for the "patrons", but increases the probability in 1.12% in the women "own account".Item Eficiencia técnica en las industrias manufactureras valle del cauca, periodo 2015-2017(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2020) Bedoya Muñoz, Natalia; Osorio Martínez, Sebastían Patricio; Serna Aros, Juan Felipe; Durán Peralta, JuliánTechnical efficiency is used in companies to advance the production processes that determine their competitiveness and their chances of survival. In this sense, the research presents the analysis of the technical efficiency of the manufacturing industries of Valle del Cauca during the period 2015-2017. For this, the data used to fulfill this objective will be from the Annual Manufacturing Survey, whose form is applied by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), as well as those provided by the Cali Chamber of Commerce, based on the Economic Balance of Cali and Valle del Cauca, and the Office of Economic Studies. Consistent with the data acquired, the approach used will be a log-log translogarithmic stochastic frontier econometric model, the objective of which is to search for mathematical relationships that allow the behavior of one economic variable to be explained from the observation in time of other different variables. , called explanatory variables. Regarding the most relevant results according to the stated objective, it indicates that, when a process is carried out between financial resources and labor costs, in the companies that make up the conglomerate of 11 productive branches of Cali, there must be a balance between labor and capital so that production performance is efficient, effective and effective; and can generate profitability and business profit.Item Determinantes de la probabilidad de resiliencia academica en la prueba pirls 2011 para colombia(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2020) Narváez,Andrés Felipe; Obregón Morales, JohynerIn this research, the objective is to determine the associated factors that influence the probability of school resilience of fourth grade students evaluated in the PIRLS 2011 test in Colombia, using Probit binary probabilistic models, where a comparison is made with the Logit model in terms of the correct classification of the variables, in addition to this, the marginal effects of the Probit model are analyzed. On the other hand, explanatory variables such as socioeconomic level ISEC, sex, book possession at home, parental support, vandalism, location of the educational center, absenteeism, interest in reading, the teacher says interesting things. With respect to the results, it is observed that the socio-economic level of the students conditions the level of learning; the sex of the students does not manage to explain the academic success, on the other hand, variables such as parental support, book possession, interest in reading and the geographical location of the educational centre manage to increase the probability of academic success of students with resilient characteristics.