Economía
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Browsing Economía by Subject "ARIMA"
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Item Análisis de la inversión extranjera directa en colombia 1996 - 2021: perspectiva económica para el primer trimestre 2022.(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2023) Moreno Naranjo, Sebastián; García Ponton, Guido Giovanni; Castillo Tabares, RubénThe present investigation deals with Foreign Direct Investment in Colombia (FDI), the impact of this can generate an increase in the economic growth of developing countries that see in it a possibility to take the step to a developed economy, for this reason We seek to generate a forecast for the first quarter of 2022. The work follows a quantitative methodology with data collection on FDI available at the Banco de la Republica for the period 1996-l 2021 taken quarterly. Forecast estimates were made using the Box-Jenkins time series methodology with the EVIEWS 9 statistical software for econometric analysis. The results that were reached is that the empirical model with the greatest adjustment, making an inward forecast, compared with the real quarters of 2021, is an autoregressive model of moving averages (ARMA) (1.1), the same with which the forecast for the periods of the year 2022. It is concluded that there is a good investment perspective for the first quarter of 2022, which can continue to encourage greater foreign investment, generating confidence, as well as possible light for future work on time series and projection on the FDI in our country.Item Pronóstico de ventas de 2019 para clínica de oftalmología de la ciudad de cali(2019) Ruiz Morales, Ramiro Ricardo; Obregon Morales, JohynerBusiness decisions are made based on forecasts and the least error or uncertainty associated with them. The purpose of this preliminary project is to make the sales forecast of an Ophthalmology IPS through the use of Forecast Methods denominated in the literature as: deterministic methods (descriptive, exponential smoothing), as well as the most sophisticated models, denominated in the literature as probabilistic such as the ARIMA (Integrated Autoregressive Mobile Media Method) models with historical sales for the period (January 2011 - June 2019), and based on these results, support the Clinic in making management decisions with less uncertainty.