Browsing by Author "Valderrama Quintero, Maria Fernanda"
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Item Análisis del comportamiento mensual de las exportaciones en cantidades del petróleo y sus derivados para colombia en el periodo 1992 al 2022 y un pronóstico para el 2024-4(Universidad Santiago de Cali, 2023) Simales Ibarra, Fabian Alejandro; Valderrama Quintero, Maria Fernanda; Castillo Tabares, RubenThis study aims to analyze the behavior of Colombian exports for approximately 3 decades from January 1992 to October 2022 in metric quantities, evidencing the highest and lowest peaks according to public policies, projects presented by the national government and confinement due to the Covid-19. The time series will be treated by an exponential smoothing method and forecast until the last quarter of 2024 to demonstrate the behavior of the foreign trade activity of Colombian crude oil ceteris paribus. The results from the Holt-Winter method show that the trend is showing downwards due to possible and different political, financial, foreign trade or external factors to Colombia.